At this week’s CEA Research Summit, two high-level executives for the Consumer Electronics Association predicted that tablets will soon dominate the computer market.
Shawn DuBravac, Chief Economist and Director of Research, and Jack Cutts, Senior Manager, Business Intelligence, said that by 2016, tablets will make up 80% of the entire computer market.
Tablets are now in 40% of homes, according to DuBravac, and the CEA predicts that this number will rise to 60% over the next three years. At the same time, the percentage of homes that have laptops and PCs will drop, from the current 70% down to 60%.
But the news isn’t all rosy for tablet sales. While sales have been growing strongly in recent years, DuBravac warns that in the next 18 months, nearly everyone who wants a tablet will have bought one.
On the other hand, the CEA expects sales of tablets to remain fairly strong even after that point, as the industry group predicts that these devices will be replaced every 20 months. By comparison, desktops are replaced every 4.5 years and notebooks every 3.5 years. The lower cost of many tablets affects the upgrade cycle.